What "normal" means for airlines right now

Airlines are operating closer to pre-pandemic schedules, but the industry has not returned to the reliability most passengers remember from 2019. Flight delays and cancellations still happen more often than they did five years ago, though the reasons have shifted. Weather, staffing shortages, and air traffic control delays remain the biggest culprits, but the system is no longer overwhelmed by the sudden demand swings that marked 2021 and 2022.

The difference between now and "normal" depends on which airline you fly and which airport you use. Major carriers like Delta, United, and American have stabilized their operations, but regional airlines and smaller hubs still see higher cancellation rates. If you fly from a major hub during peak hours, your experience will look fairly normal. If you fly from a smaller airport or during weather events, delays remain common.

Key Takeaways

  • Airlines are operating at near-2019 capacity, but delays and cancellations occur more frequently than they did before the pandemic.
  • Staffing remains tight at regional airlines and some airports, which means weather or mechanical issues cascade into longer delays.
  • Major carriers have hired aggressively and restored most routes, but ground crews and air traffic controllers are still understaffed in many places.
  • Your experience depends heavily on which airline, which airport, and which time of year you travel.

Why delays are still higher than they were in 2019

The airline industry lost thousands of workers during the pandemic and has not fully replaced them. Pilots, flight attendants, ground crews, and maintenance technicians all took early retirement or left for other work. Airlines have hired aggressively since 2022, but training new staff takes months, and some positions still sit unfilled.

Air traffic control is understaffed in the same way. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) operates the system that sequences planes into and out of airports. When controllers call in sick or retire faster than the FAA can train replacements, the system slows down. A single understaffed control tower can delay hundreds of flights across a region in a single day. This is not an airline problem—it is a system problem—but passengers experience it as a delay.

Weather also hits harder now because there is less slack in the schedule. In 2019, if a thunderstorm closed an airport for two hours, airlines had buffer time to absorb the disruption. Today, planes and crews are scheduled more tightly to reduce costs, so a two-hour weather delay cascades into cancellations hours later and hundreds of miles away.

Which airlines and airports have the most delays

The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes on-time performance data for every airline each month. In recent years, regional carriers—airlines that operate smaller planes for major carriers under contract—have had higher delay and cancellation rates than the "Big Three" (Delta, United, American). This is partly because regional airlines operate from smaller airports with fewer backup resources and partly because they carry passengers on tight connections.

Specific airports with chronic delays include Newark (EWR), LaGuardia (LGA), and Atlanta (ATL) during peak hours. These airports operate near or at capacity, which means any disruption—weather, a mechanical issue, a medical emergency—backs up the entire system. Smaller, less congested airports like Denver (DEN) and Dallas (DFW) generally move planes through faster.

If you check the FAA's website or your airline's website before booking, you can see which routes and airports have the worst on-time records. This information changes seasonally—winter brings weather delays, summer brings thunderstorms, and spring and fall are generally more stable.

How staffing shortages affect your flight

When an airline is short on pilots or flight attendants, it cancels flights rather than delay them. A cancellation is more expensive for the airline (they must rebook passengers or refund tickets), but it is the only option when crew is not available. You will see this most often at regional airlines and on early-morning or late-evening flights, when crews are harder to schedule.

Ground crews—the people who load baggage, refuel planes, and push them back from the gate—also affect your departure time. When ground crews are understaffed, planes sit at the gate longer while waiting for a crew to become available. This looks like a delay to you, but it is really a staffing shortage.

Maintenance technicians are in short supply too. If a plane has a mechanical issue, it cannot fly until a technician inspects and repairs it. At airports with few available technicians, this can take hours. At airports with adequate staffing, the same repair might be done in 30 minutes.

Seasonal patterns and when delays are worst

Winter (December through February) brings the most weather-related delays. Snow, ice, and fog close airports or slow operations. Spring and fall are generally the most stable seasons. Summer (June through August) brings afternoon thunderstorms, especially in the Southeast and Midwest, which cause delays but rarely close airports entirely.

Holiday travel periods—Thanksgiving week, Christmas week, and the week between Christmas and New Year's—see higher passenger volumes, which means more flights and more opportunities for delays. If you have flexibility, traveling a few days before or after the peak holiday period will reduce your chances of a delay.

Time of day also matters. Early-morning flights (before 7 a.m.) tend to be more reliable because they start fresh with rested crews and no backlog from the previous day. Afternoon and evening flights are more likely to be delayed because they inherit delays from earlier flights.

What the data shows about 2024 and beyond

The FAA and Department of Transportation track on-time performance publicly. In 2023 and early 2024, the major carriers (Delta, United, American, Southwest) maintained on-time rates in the 80 to 85 percent range—meaning roughly 15 to 20 percent of flights were delayed by 15 minutes or more. In 2019, the industry average was around 82 percent, so the major carriers are close to historical norms.

Regional carriers and smaller airlines have not recovered as fully. Their on-time rates hover around 75 to 80 percent. This gap is expected to narrow as hiring and training continue, but it will take years for the industry to fully stabilize.

The FAA is also working to modernize air traffic control systems, which should reduce delays caused by the control system itself. This modernization is slow and expensive, and it will not show major results until the late 2020s.

How to reduce your own delay risk

Book early-morning flights when possible. They are more likely to depart on time because they do not inherit delays from earlier flights. Avoid connecting flights during peak hours (11 a.m. to 3 p.m.) if you have a tight connection, because delays in one part of the system cascade into missed connections.

Check your airline's on-time performance before booking. The Department of Transportation publishes this data by airline and route. If a route has a history of delays, consider flying a different route or airline, or build extra time into your schedule.

Sign up for real-time alerts from your airline. Most airlines send text or email notifications when a flight is delayed, cancelled, or rebooked. This gives you time to make alternate plans instead of learning about the delay at the airport.

Arrive at the airport early, especially during peak travel periods. A delay is less stressful if you are not rushing to make a connection or catch your flight.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are airlines cancelling more flights than they did before the pandemic?

Cancellation rates are higher than 2019 but lower than 2021 and 2022. Most of the increase is due to staffing shortages and tighter scheduling. Major carriers cancel roughly 1 to 2 percent of flights; regional carriers cancel 2 to 3 percent. In 2019, the industry average was around 1 percent.

Will airlines ever get back to 2019 reliability?

Probably, but it will take several more years. Airlines are still hiring and training staff, and the FAA is modernizing air traffic control. Once staffing levels match pre-pandemic levels and the control system is upgraded, delays should return to 2019 levels. This is expected sometime in the late 2020s.

What should I do if my flight is delayed or cancelled?

Contact your airline when ready. They are required to rebook you on the next available flight at no extra cost or refund your ticket if you no longer want to travel. Document everything—take screenshots of the delay notification, keep your boarding pass, and save confirmation emails. If the delay was caused by the airline (not weather), you may be may have access to to compensation under Department of Transportation rules.

Is it better to fly with a major airline or a regional airline?

Major carriers (Delta, United, American, Southwest) have better on-time records than regional carriers. However, regional carriers operate many flights for the major carriers, so you may end up on a regional airline even if you book with a major carrier. Check your booking confirmation to see which airline actually operates your flight.

Does flying from a smaller airport reduce delay risk?

Yes, generally. Smaller airports have less congestion and fewer cascading delays. However, smaller airports also have fewer flights, so your route options are limited. If you have a choice between a major hub and a smaller airport, the smaller airport is usually more reliable, but you may have fewer flight times to choose from.